Despite Reaching its 10th Year, Facebook will Soon Meet its Downfall Come Year 2017-- Researchers

By: Sherwin in General Topic

Facebook was founded by no other than Mark Zuckerberg during his tenure at Harvard University. Although he took up Psychology in that prestigious university, his skills in programming was astounding. Before Facebook was created, he already made other social networking sites like Coursematch, which you can view people taking up the same degree as yours and Facematch where the strikingly gorgeous faces were rated.


Facebook was created on February 2004. Harvard students and professors were its first members. Followed by other universities. Its popularity was like a plague. Yahoo and Google tried to buy Facebook but Zuckerberg rejected both of their proposals.

Imagine if Zuckerberg accepted their offer, would Facebook still look the same as it is today? Will it still be celebrating its 10th year anniversary?

I am so glad that I’ve been part of Facebook’s history. As a member, I believe it’s reasonable to say that I contributed its growth too. It’s pleasant to see Facebook reached its 10th year despite the tight competition and previous legal cases filed against them.

Do you think Facebook will last for another 10 years or more? Some researchers highly doubted it.

Graduate students from Princeton University made a research and forecasted that Facebook’s active membership will regress by 80 percent by 2017. But how were they able to come up with such findings? Here’s what they have to say:

"We modify the traditional (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model) is validated using publicly available Google search query data for 'MySpace' as a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases. The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for 'Facebook,' which is just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in the next few years."

If that’s true, then the best years of Facebook have already come and passed. According to their studies, it peaked last 2012 and is now on the downhill. But there is nothing to worry about for now since the downfall isn't as rapid as most of you are thinking anyway. And besides, I firmly believe that Facebook will last a couple of years more than what they have predicted since they successfully bridged every people around the world without any complexities. Facebook is no MyScpace, AOL, Friendster or Alta Vista at any rate.




Good Day mates! I’m Sherwin, I am an Electrical Engineering student at Rizal Technological University. I love writing articles and editorials second only to reading interesting conspiracy theories. Feel free to contact me, if you find my opinions and articles a little bit offensive or unoriginal. Follow or add me @

Posted by on 30 Mar 2014

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