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Miami Heat’s Chance of Having a Three-Peat: Slim to None?


The “ Curse of the Three-Peat “ is a phrase that signifies the urge to reach the summit of sports achievement in America but ends up with disappointments for many teams in its pursuit. The Miami Heat is on the chase for their third straight championship, a feat that was last done ten years ago by the Los Angeles Lakers. It is quite hard to attain this kind of achievement since the competition gets tougher as the years go by and three-peat seeker’s rivals are persistently finding ways to stop them from making such accomplishment.

miami-heat-three-peat

How slim are the chances of the Miami Heat of getting their third ring this season? Will Lebron be able to do what his rivals, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, managed to achieve? Let us study some facts then we’ll make a conclusion after.

  • There are 15 teams since the merger who have been to the Finals three years in a row. Of those 15, seven went on to win the title.
  • Of the seven who won the title, they averaged 29.4 wins in the first half of the season. The Heat were 29-12 at the midway point this year and 28-13 last year.
  • There's a strong indicator that it's not how you start but how you finish that matters. Six of the seven teams had a better second half of the season, winning 1.5 more games on average.
  • Of the three teams who successfully three-peated, only the 2002 Lakers raised their win total over their repeat season, and then only by two games. The '98 Bulls won seven fewer games and the '83 Bulls won 10 fewer games.
  • By comparison, teams that failed to defend in their three-peat (or four-peat) lost more games. These teams include the 2011 Lakers, 2003 Lakers, 1991 Pistons and 1989 Lakers.

nba-three-peat-championships

What's interesting is that the teams who defended won on average 5.0 fewer games and teams who failed, only won an average 5.5 fewer games, a negligible difference.

It seems that coasting, particularly through early part of the season, doesn't hurt. Teams that were trying to three-peat and had a better record in the second half of the season made it to the finals five times of six times and won four times. All three three-peat teams won at least as many games in the second half of the season as the first.

The Heat’s road towards a three-peat is still fuzzy as of now, but expect them to pick things up after the All-Star break.

Do you think they have what it takes to have a three-peat?

Sherwin

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Sherwin

Good Day mates! I’m Sherwin, I am an Electrical Engineering student at Rizal Technological University. I love writing articles and editorials second only to reading interesting conspiracy theories. Feel free to contact me, if you find my opinions and articles a little bit offensive or unoriginal. Follow or add me @ https://www.facebook.com/shatteredsherwin/

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